Bullrun Ain’t Over Yet
What’s good bois. Just wanted to provide a quick update here. I’m sure the recent market downturn has affected your portfolio holdings. A good amount of us are also affected by the recent Binance flash loan attacks as well. As always, I’m paying attention to numerous on-chain data, and it looks like the Bullrun isn’t over just yet.
This recent downtrend could actually be a net positive thing for all of us. Recently, I talked about that if BTC closes above 60, 61k levels for a one-day candle, we’ve officially entered phase 3. That…did not happen. It looked like it was going to happen, but Elon came and shoved a rod up our ass…traders with levered positions got liquidated…Chinese FUD came and slingshotted us across the globe…Traditional markets said OMG inflation!!! and kicked us while we’re down…and now we’re sitting at the bottom of this red candle cave looking to crawl out…
On the flip side of things, this could be a good thing…at least for me. You see, I quit my job to pursue what I love, which is trading cryptos. When I first started this, I had a rough estimation of the bull run being over at around the October time frame. I thought things were going up a little too fast, yada yada, and maybe it’ll all end in August. I’m really having a lot of fun trading cryptos and having it end early is kind of a bummer. However, this huge shakeout can put the crypto market in a consolidation/accumulation phase (How long will this phase last? No one knows…hopefully it lasts for a month, which will be great for us yield farmers out there). On-chain data also suggests this. Old BTC holders are not selling, and they’re accumulating at these lower levels. The newer crypto people have sold their positions and ran the other way. A lot of people have not “cashed out” just yet. I mean…they’ve turned their holdings into stable coins and are sitting on the sidelines looking to see where the market is heading. This is a good thing because if the market turns bullish again, and we stop hearing all these FUD, we’ll be back on track to $70k BTC.
Now…this is not to say that it is confirmed that the crypto market will flip back immediately or I’m saying definitively we are still in a bull run. I’m saying that by aggregating all the data here…if I’m a betting man, I’d say that 70% chance we’re still in a bull run. In poker terms, I’d take that bet every single time. But we all know that sometimes you’ll have Aces pre-flop and still get fucked over by some kid holding 2,5 off-suit and hit a straight on the river…Pain. :(
At this point, I’m just holding. We’re seeing the market having a huge rebound today because traditional markets are up, and honestly…BTC is very oversold right now. Again, this does not suggest we are out of the bearish trend yet. We are far from it. If anything, May has taught me several things. Us retail investors are really powerless. All it takes is some FUD, some tweets, and the market goes into extreme panic mode. But hey…this is what happens in an immature market such as cryptocurrency. If you’re looking for 5x, 10x, 100xers, you’re going to have to live with 50% — 70% drops in a matter of 2 weeks. We need to pay very close attention to how BTC closes the month of May, and I will give you guys an update and my outlook of the market then. For now…hold strong and keep your spirits up. GLHF!
