May/June 2021 Update — Degen Crypto Journey

Alright boys. I present to you another update. It’s been almost 40 days since I posted my last blog. The title of my last blog was “Bullrun Ain’t Over Yet”, we’ll touch on that. But how are y’all feeling? Has it been a rough month or so? Have you been rekt by the market yet? Have you stopped checking cryptos altogether? I feel you man… I fucking feel you🥺

In this blog, I’ll update y’all on my performance and go through some macro trends. Of course, I’ll also lump in some random shit I want to talk about towards the end of the blog as well. Again, I’m no financial advisor, and I’m just some degen-ass bum who may or may not have gotten lucky the past few months. glhf!

My Performance & What Went Wrong

Let’s start this off with my performance so far in the market. Again, I will always have total transperancy here. This is how things are going on my end. I’ve suffered essentially a 50% reduction from my peak gains. I think I peaked at $280k of gains at one point. What followed was the dramatic downturn in the market in May. A year ago, I couldn’t even fathom the idea of having over $100k since I just graduated. Now, having “lost” $150k in 2 months…I feel pretty good about it still (I’ll touch on this later).

How has this impacted me? Well…I’ve noticed a huge difference in how people act around me due to the market downturn. It’s no big secret that I quit my job to pursue trading, so people are always asking me about how much money I’m up etc…in April. It was defintely a huge talking point, since people were curious and it made me very uncomfortable. I wasn’t uncomfortable with the people I’m close to, but was very uncomfortable with outside circle friends. In many occasions, people I haven’t talked to in a year or so will congratulate me on how well I’m doing in cryptos, which was honestly wild…and again…wildly uncomfortable for me. Honestly…at that point, maybe I should’ve sensed a “short-term” market top at the time. However, I was too busy enjoying my gains and ignored a couple concerning metrics. For that, I want to apologize to the people who went on this crypto journey with me, and I should’ve been more cautious at the time.

You see…I’ve always known about these metrics. For example, every crypto bull-run, there’s always a point where BTC will re-touch the monthly EMA. I just thought, well this bull-run will defintely have to touch it, but…maybe it won’t touch it for another month or so 💀. Essentially, I was too greedy, and I didn’t warn y’all enough about it. Now…do I regret what I said in my previous blogs “Bullrun Ain’t Over Yet”? No, I don’t regret it at all. My analysis still stands. To me, BTC $100k is still coming, but obviously hindsight is 20–20, and maybe I should’ve been more cautious and took out 30% of the profits at the time.

Relating My Personal Experience to On-Chain Data

When the initial drop in May happened, people were concerned. I’ve gotten concerning texts from multiple people…wondering if I’m going to be homeless. Ok, that may be too dramatic, but I did get a lot of concerning looks and hands on my shoulder asking if I’m ok. When June rolled around, people stopped asking questions. It felt like the topic was too “sensitive” to me or something, and they were walking around eggshells since they know I’m heavily exposed to cryptocurrency. I haven’t had a “crypto” conversation with people for a while now, which has been very refreshing.

This is all very interesting to me, because this social sentiment has translated perfectly to the braoder market’s on-chain data. You see, there was a massive sell-off in May. Mostly from whales that we know nothing about (this feeds into the narrative of whales maniuplating the market). What followed was a massive sell-off from people who recently got into cryptocurrencies. Newly created wallets within a month or two sold off more and more BTC, while the market struggled to stay above the $40k level.

What about existing crypto holders from before you ask? Well…they sold very little of their holdings, and when the market stabilized at around $30k, these people started to buy the dip. There is this new narrative going around that there might be another dip coming to push BTC below $30k (possibly $20k as the worst case scenario), and then a V-shape recovery. What do I think about this? Well…

The Bear Trap, Wyckoff, Fugazi It’s a Wazzi It’s a Woozi It’s Fairy Dust

Remember this scene from Wolf of Wall Street? Matthew McConaughey talked about how none of this stock shit is real…it’s fucking fairy dust. Unrealized gains are well…unrealized.

No one really knows what the market will do, except for the really rich and powerful. If China wants to hit us with their patented FUD every bull-run, they’re going to hit us with it. Caleb asked me how I felt about China’s BTC mining ban. My answer to this is honestly…this is nothing new. China’s dominance in BTC mining has been on a decline for several years actually…but has it really??? (Plays dramatic music) LMAO Let me explain.

SOS is a publicly traded Chinese mining company. They announced in May that they will be scaling up their mining rigs, and in June they announced a Joint Venture Agreement to take these operations into the U.S. I want to point out the partners this company has. These are legitimate Chinese banks. I think everyone who grew up in China or has some familiarity with how companies in China work has an idea that the government is really the top dog there. Is China plotting something here? Are they masking their hashrate in the U.S. so the crypto market are more comfortable with China not having as much “influence” over BTC? I don’t know, but I’m suspicious.

Look…there is a ton of FUD going around, and I’m not saying that everything is FUD. The crypto community has been too overly optimistic sometimes in my honest opinion. You see…the concerning news surrounding Tether or Binance are really concerning for me. I do think that one day, Tether or Binance might actually be the cause of the entire crypto market suffering a 70% or 80% drop from its peak (in the case that the bubble pops…maybe in December??). To me, these are real concerns and none of us really know when or how it will happen, or will it even happen. I just want to bring it up and remind people that these are legitimate concerns, and if BTC rebounds back up to $60 or $100k, we should be on the lookout for that. Meanwhile, I think the cards that have been dealt to us, we really do need to just sit tight and wait for the market to rebound.

Let’s talk about The Bear Trap and Wyckoff :)

When the market dropped in May, there were 2 narratives that emerged for the bulls. These are The Bear Trap and the Wyckoff Analysis. The Bear Trap argument argues that this bullrun will imitate the 2012 BTC bull run, where we will have a sharp drop (May), and meet with a prolonged consolidation phase (June — July). I would say I agree with this more. It is true that the market has rallied too fast, and it needs to cool off a bit. We also need to shake out these motherfuckers who are trading on leverage, and fucking up the market for everyone. SMH y’all degen ass traders.

The second argument is the Wyckoff Analysis. As you guys can see, this is a Wyckoff chart. The bulls are saying that BTC will follow this chart, so there may be another dip coming and then a V-shape recovery to enter the 3rd phase of this bul-run.

I’m presenting these to you guys as a macro-market recap. Again…it’s a Fugazi It’s a Wazzi It’s a Woozi It’s Fairy Dust. No one really knows what will happen... I am bullish on cryptos, and I do think we’ll be on the uptrend this month or next month. But, I want to point out that in the absolute worst case scenario, I think BTC can dip to $20k (chances are very low) and the upside of BTC is $100 — $150k. We’re kind of just stuck in this situation where if you’re still up 2–3x in your crypto holdings, you’re going to be just fine, and I think it’s a good bet to bet on the bulls.

To put it all into a poker analogy it’s like we got pocket 7s and we hit trips on the turn…we’re feeling good, but the market has a gut shot straight draw for a straight…so we call all-in, and all we can do is cross our fingers and pray (even though we got great odds).

In Conclusion

This blog was a bit long, my thoughts might be a little jumbled, and I didnt even really touched on everything I wanted to talk about. However, I think what’s most important is for us to sit tight and hold. I couldn’t go into every single on-chain analysis, metrics, etc… because this blog would be like a 20-minute read or some shit…but this is where I stand…for now :)

Once again, I will keep you guys updated with stuff that comes up. GLHF out there. Have a great July 4th as well!